Me versus Random: Costello Retirement Predictions
In order to knock some sense in myself and as an interesting game, I want to test my predictions versus those of a coin or a die. I will not do this in an ultra-scientific way as I do not have the time to fully analyse the validity of my method but I will try to make it so that I get some kind of useful comparison.
The possible predictions are: he will retire within the first year (between 24th of November 2007 until 23rd of November 2008), within the second year (24th of November 2008 until 23rd of November 2009), within the third year (24th of November 2009 until just before the date of the election) or he will serve the full term. There are other possibilities but if they occur and they are outside his control then the game is over. There are no ‘close calls’ so if I predict the first year and he retires on the 24th of November 2008 I am declared 100% incorrect.
For the four possibilities I will use Random.org to generate an integer between one and four, with one corresponding to the earliest prediction and so on.
…
The number generated was one.
My prediction is that he will serve his full term.
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